A mild recession has long been expected for 2023 - this is when two or more quarters of negative growth occur - but was averted by positive growth in the fourth quarter of 2022.
The economy is currently expected to be buoyant, mainly because of low unemployment, high savings and relatively healthy buffers at companies. In addition, inflation is expected to fall sharply in 2023, driven mainly by lower energy prices. That effect is further enhanced in the Netherlands by the government's price cap.
Lower inflation is obviously very good news for consumers' purchasing power. What will also keep many investors busy in 2023 is when central banks will stop raising policy rates and then when they will start cutting them again. There are also geopolitical worries. First, the war in Ukraine will continue to occupy minds for now. Will 2023 be the year when peace is brought about? Also interesting is what China will do on the geopolitical front. All in all, there are more than enough reasons to think that we will not be rid of high volatility in the financial markets for the time being. Fortunately, our pension fund can take a punch.